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By Fortune Abang
Yao Jingyuan, former Chief Economist of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, has projected the Chinese agricultural sector national grain output to reach new high record of 1.4 trillion jin.
Jingyuan, who is well-versed in China’s economic indicators with not less than four decades of experience in economic analysis, disclosed this at the virtual 2024 annual meeting of Harvard Business Review in Beijing.
According to him, investing in China truly means investing in valuable opportunities.
“The 1.4 trillion jin approximately 700 million tonnes so far recorded this year marked an increase of about 100 billion jin; that is 50 thousand tonnes compared to the average of the past nine years.
“The Chinese economy is intricate; yet one of the most straightforward ways to assess it is through agricultural and industrial output.
“In 2024, China has recorded a significant grain harvest and substantial growth in industrial output, underscoring its stable and robust production capacity.
“This achievement not only signifies several consecutive years of ample grain production in China, but also reinforces the country’s food security.”
He emphasised the importance of stable agricultural product supply rather than focusing solely on statistics.
Jingyuan added that one should observe the food market, abundance of meat, poultry, egg and vegetables, along with a decline in prices.
On the industrial sector, he explained that equipment manufacturing grew by 7.5 per cent, while high-tech manufacturing surged by 9.1 per cent in the first three quarters of this year.
“Manufacturing remains the backbone of the industry and is gaining momentum, particularly high-tech sector; energy consumption per unit of added value among large industrial enterprises decreased by 3.8 per cent year-on-year in the same period.
“Exports, a key driver of economic growth, have performed impressively this year, in the first three quarters, China’s exports increased by 6.2 per cent year-on-year, reflecting the country’s sustained competitiveness in global trade.
“These strong export performances are attributed to China’s robust comprehensive industrial and supply chains, formidable production capacity, and the vitality of the private sector, which constitutes 55 per cent of the economy.
“Therefore, I anticipate that China’s import and export activities will maintain positive momentum over the next two months”.
He commended the Chinese government for policies addressing challenges and boosting investment in infrastructure, industry, and property, noting industrial investment in large-scale equipment upgrades as especially promising.
Jingyuan said that data from the National Development and Reform Commission in 2023, indicated that investment in equipment for key sectors such as industry and agriculture in China amounted to approximately 4.9 trillion yuan.
“The government plans to increase this investment by 25 per cent over four years, targeting 7 trillion yuan by 2027, which translates to an annual addition of 350 billion yuan in new industrial investment.”
Jingyuan said he anticipated that China would continue to issue ultra-long special treasury bonds in 2025 and expressed strong confidence in the future of the Chinese economy.
He further called for collaboration across all sectors of society to seize emerging development opportunities.
“We must believe that China will overcome challenges and restore public confidence and expectations.
“We have faced severe obstacles during our most trying times, such as the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Asian financial crisis in 1998, and the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.
“We are in a much stronger position than we were in those situations; and we will succeed once again,” he said. (NAN) (www.nannews.ng)
Edited by Chijioke Okoronkwo
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