South Africa can only benefit from either embracing true neutrality, where no trade partner is privileged over any other, or backing other countries with similar values, which are also able to provide us with a far greater trade surplus, as well as the moral high ground, argues Nicholas Woode-Smith.
The ANC repeatedly places South Africa on the wrong side of history. We have seen the government reinforce its ties with China and Russia, while snubbing its partners in the West. This foolishness is not only morally reprehensible but threatens the prosperity of all South Africans.
Recently, South Africa came under fire for allegedly supplying Russia with ammunition for use in its war against Ukraine. While the government has tried to distance itself from the US ambassador’s accusations, it is exceptionally difficult for it to claim South Africa is non-aligned. This comes after South Africa invited Russia to participate in military exercises in February and has repeatedly dragged its feet over an order from the ICC to arrest Russian President Putin if he attends the BRICS summit on South African soil later this year.
These acts, combined with a torrid voting record at the United Nations (UN) that supports China, Russia, North Korea, Iran and other undemocratic states at the expense of human rights, has culminated in South Africa painting itself as an immature, dangerous nation.
US Chairperson of the House Foreign Affairs panel, John James, has even introduced legislation requesting an investigation into bilateral relations between South Africa and the United States. This is on top of former US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley rating South Africa among the top 10 most aggressively anti-American countries in the world.
Every foreign affairs disaster has been followed by the value of the Rand plummeting (dropping to as bad as R19.69 to the USD this week).
Alongside this more symbolic drop in value has been a rise in capital flight and a continual decline in foreign direct investment, as South Africa not only becomes a riskier investment due to incompetent domestic policy, but a dangerous trade partner due to irresponsible foreign policy.
It is clear that the United States’ concerns with South Africa are not baseless or toothless. They have real and dire consequences.
And most notable of these dire consequences may be the refusal of the United States to renew South Africa’s membership to AGOA.
AGOA vs BRICS
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is set to expire in 2025, with South Africa awaiting a renewal that is unlikely to happen while its government aligns with the United States’ enemies.
AGOA provides South Africa with an immense amount of tangible wealth, allowing us preferential access to the US market and producing a tremendous amount of $15.7bn in exports in 2021 alone. This is compared to $4.2bn in exports in 2000.
Critics of AGOA may argue that BRICS provides South Africa with far more trade potential. While the United States made up 8.8% of the total exports sent from South Africa in 2022, China made up 9.7%. India comes second in BRICS, being sent 4.2% of South Africa’s exports. Russia and Brazil did not feature on the top 25 of South Africa’s export partners.
But while the United States is a single nation compared to an entire trade bloc, it also represents the trade and foreign interests of many other Western countries. If South Africa and the United States continue to engage in hostilities, we may find ourselves facing additional harsh actions by countries like Germany (which provides for 8.1% of our export market), and the United Kingdom (5.1%).
Additionally, trade with China, India and Brazil cause a major imbalance in trade – leading to a combined $14.7bn in trade deficits. Conversely, the United Kingdom and United States provide us with a surplus of $4.5bn and $2.7bn respectively. Trade with the West benefits us far more than trade with BRICS.
But all this may go away if AGOA is not renewed, and the United States continues to see us as an enemy allying with tyrannies.
How to fix it?
South Africa must rethink its approach to our global democratic partners. China and Russia are foolish horses to back. They are comparatively exploitative trade partners, both face demographic collapse and are guilty of vast lists of human rights abuses.
We can only benefit from either embracing true neutrality, where no trade partner is privileged over any other, or back other countries with similar values, which are also able to provide us with a far greater trade surplus, as well as the moral high ground.
To mend our broken relations with the West, however, South Africa needs to mend all its wrongs. In order to achieve this, there are some fundamental changes that would be required. On top of ceasing its tacit support of Russia and China, it also needs to return to the cause of its strained relations with the United States going as far back as 1994.
Even in 2003, South Africa failed to ratify a trade agreement with the United States partly over tensions surrounding Israel.
The ANC government has repeatedly condemned Israel, linking itself to Palestine, and opposing Israel’s observer status in the African Union. This is despite South Africa benefiting from profitable trade with Israel. In fact, it was Israeli companies that helped solve a water crisis in the North West province as recently as last year.
The United States has had issues with our arbitrary and ignorant approach to Israel for decades. It is also worth noting that mending our relationship with Israel need not come at the expense of our support for the Palestinians. This is one area where all the BRICS nations have shown a smart, flexible diplomatic approach that allows for engagement with both. That being said, we should also consider ceasing all state-centered commentary on the Palestinian issue that is not rooted in the facts – this would go a long way to proving to the United States that we are a mature nation that will not only make a good trade partner, but a good ally.
Fixing our international reputation will be hard, but it isn’t impossible. All it will require is for the ANC to end its antiquated prejudices against the West, and an embracement of a rational approach that doesn’t jeopardise the future of all South African businesses, exports, trade and people.
– Nicholas Woode-Smith is a political commentator.
Credit: News 24