Tropical Storm Rafael is passing south of western Jamaica and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane possibly by Tuesday evening.
Rafael, which formed Sunday and was previously known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, is located about 65 miles southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and moving north-west at 13 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center‘s 10 a.m. ET Tuesday update.
Forecasters said Rafael is “getting better organized” as its center passes Jamaica. It’s expected to undergo “steady to rapid intensification” over the next 24 to 36 hours, and is expected to become a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands this evening and tonight, the NHC said.
Rafael is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, and it will be the 11th hurricane if it strengthens further, as expected. The season lasts until Nov. 30, though peak activity is usually around Sept. 10.
The storm system is expected to approach the U.S. later in the week, the hurricane center said. A tropical storm watch was issued Monday afternoon for the lower and middle Florida Keys and for the Dry Tortugas, which was later upgraded Tuesday morning to a tropical storm warning.
It’s too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast, however, tropical storm winds are possible for the Florida Keys and south Florida on Wednesday afternoon. Rafael is also forecast to rapidly weaken as it is approaching landfall on the Gulf Coast.
A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands, and the Cuban government has upgraded all areas previously covered by hurricane watches to hurricane warning status, which indicates hurricane conditions are likely in 36 hours, the hurricane center said.
Havana is among the areas under a hurricane warning, the center said.
Forecasters expect the weather system to move near Jamaica late Monday, then to be near or over the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, when it may be near or at hurricane intensity. It is then forecast to approach Cuba on Wednesday.
The hurricane center’s latest forecast cone, which comes with some uncertainty, has Rafael passing over the western reaches of Cuba on Wednesday afternoon or evening.
“Rafael is expected to become a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba,” the hurricane center said Tuesday morning.
As early as Monday morning, NHC forecasters said the chance that the storm would become a hurricane over the next 48 hours was “near 100%.”
Rafael is forecast to dump 3 to 6 inches of rain across much of the western Caribbean and up to 10 inches in some areas. The heaviest precipitation is expected in Jamaica.
Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday evening, and storm surge up to 3 feet is expected in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, the NHC said. Flooding and mudslides could also occur in parts of Jamaica and Cuba.
This hurricane season has proven to be an active one. Parts of the Southeast are still reeling from hurricanes Helene and Milton, which hit two weeks apart in late September and early October.
Forecasters predicted an exceptionally busy hurricane season, in part because of record-high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.
Experts at Colorado State University, a prominent hurricane forecast center, said this year that they anticipated a “hyperactive season.” The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted eight to 13 hurricanes and 17 to 25 named storms — the most the agency had ever projected in the annual outlook it issues in May.
Rafael is the 10th named storm since Sept. 24, making the 2024 season’s 10 named storms between Sept. 24 and Nov. 4 the most on record for that time span, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes (classified as Category 3 or above), according to the NHC.
Dennis Romero contributed.